Brexit

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savvypaul
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Re: Brexit

Unread post by savvypaul »

Dr Bunsen Honeydew wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 5:37 pm "Walking away without a deal will risk swift and significant damage to the British economy that may take several years, perhaps decades, to recover." Even that is way off track and too sensational. What you are describing is the 2008 crash, and note how people tried to play that one down, where as Brexit is bringing out all the sensationalism. Brexit will be minor if at all compared with that.

I tell you nothing of any consequence will change, the only thing we voted for was disruption, and yes we are going to get that either way. BUT both will settle into boring normality in time as nothing fundamental will change, where as 2008 was full of fundamentals a lot of which we are still kicking around the long grass to try and forget about. Trouble is if we lose the ball then 2008 mk2 is just around the corner.
If a sensible deal is done then maybe there will be only minimal impact...
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Dr Bunsen Honeydew
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Re: Brexit

Unread post by Dr Bunsen Honeydew »

There will be lots of disruption either way. Out without a deal will mean world war 3 in commercial terms, but as with the other world wars with Europe the English speaking nations will rally round and within a year we will have (largely) free trade with USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and USA will more than replace mainland EU. Following on in a year or two will be India, China, Sing...................and on and on. It is the EU who are the trade Luddites that need showing up. AND that is what scares the shite out of them.

WE DON'T HAVE TO DO A DEAL, but short term-ism is making the financiers of the Tory Party chicken out and they want a deal now, minds on both sides are changing for different reasons.

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Re: Brexit

Unread post by savvypaul »

43% of UK's exports go to the EU.

What is to stop the EU having largely free trade deals with US, Canada, Australia, India etc?
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Re: Brexit

Unread post by Dr Bunsen Honeydew »

Your joking - right!

This is Brussels you are talking about. The executive needs to earn a years salary to decide which paper clip to use. PLUS they think they are gods gift to the world and have so many internal interests to protects it just wont happen, it will become them shut off from the rest of the world the way things are going.

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Re: Brexit

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Merkel hosted the new Indian Prime Minister in May of this year and used that occasion to speak about commitment to concluding a free trade deal between India and the EU...
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Re: Brexit

Unread post by savvypaul »

Dr Bunsen Honeydew wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 6:48 pm Your joking - right!

This is Brussels you are talking about. The executive needs to earn a years salary to decide which paper clip to use..
That is a sensational exaggeration... ;)
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Re: Brexit

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Well if you look into it it takes over a year for any decision to be made, maybe even paperclips, so a years salary. Reason is so many levels of consultation and people who have to be involved. Everyone has their ego and self importance. Our civil service is bad enough but theirs is obscene, and they duplicate us, dual costs.

Example - Canada - negotiations started 2009, finished and agreed 2014, so 5 years. Now it is 2017 and they still haven't been implemented due to the above. So that is now 8 years and still nothing, these people are simply incapable of agreeing anything. Which is why I am coming to the conclusion we should just walk, as even if we have agreement, they just wont implement it, so we will have to walk anyway.

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Re: Brexit

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There has been a 4 year delay in the EU - India talks:

Two important elements that stalled the negotiations four years ago were visa liberalization demanded by India for its professionals and the high tariffs the country has on foreign wines and spirits. In both cases, the U.K. played a key role — resisting change on visas and demanding lower tariffs on wines and spirits. Now the EU could be free to make more concessions.

“We’re optimistic that Brexit will speed things up,” said a lawyer consulting for companies on EU-India investment.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-indi ... exit-deal/
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Re: Brexit

Unread post by savvypaul »

Though, the EU - Canada deal was delayed by a regional parliament in Belgium!
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Re: Brexit

Unread post by Dr Bunsen Honeydew »

Exactly, so what plans do you have for Brexit (yawn).

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