The Rise & Fall of Boris Johnson

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Re: The Rise & Fall of Boris Johnson

Unread post by savvypaul »

This is one of those situations where you can make the figures say whatever suits your point of view..

There are so many caveats
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Re: The Rise & Fall of Boris Johnson

Unread post by CN211276 »

However the figures are interpreted, there can be no doubt that thousands of deaths would have been prevented had the lockdowns been sooner. Allowing Cheltenham to go ahead in March 2000 was madness. Football authorities took matters into their own hands by cancelling fixtures before lock down. Because the lockdowns were implemented too late they went on for longer than would otherwise have been the case. Made no. difference to No. 10 though. :guiness;
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Re: The Rise & Fall of Boris Johnson

Unread post by savvypaul »

There is a non political discussion of the figures on R4, right now.

The programme is called More or Less
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Re: The Rise & Fall of Boris Johnson

Unread post by Geoff.R.G »

CN211276 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 9:50 am However the figures are interpreted, there can be no doubt that thousands of deaths would have been prevented had the lockdowns been sooner. Allowing Cheltenham to go ahead in March 2000 was madness. Football authorities took matters into their own hands by cancelling fixtures before lock down. Because the lockdowns were implemented too late they went on for longer than would otherwise have been the case. Made no. difference to No. 10 though. :guiness;
Unfortunately, without knowing the percentage of the 150,000 had pre-existing, potentially terminal, conditions it is impossible to say how many of them would have died of the pre-existing condition irrespective of the positive test.

Lockdowns were implemented on the basis of modelling. The decision of the cabinet in December 2021 not to follow the “science”, by not implementing more onerous restrictions, allowed the predictions of several models to be tested. The data shows that the models massively overestimated the numbers of hospital admissions and deaths. It is more than likely that previous modelling and predictions were equally erroneous.

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Re: The Rise & Fall of Boris Johnson

Unread post by savvypaul »

Geoff.R.G wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:43 am
CN211276 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 9:50 am However the figures are interpreted, there can be no doubt that thousands of deaths would have been prevented had the lockdowns been sooner. Allowing Cheltenham to go ahead in March 2000 was madness. Football authorities took matters into their own hands by cancelling fixtures before lock down. Because the lockdowns were implemented too late they went on for longer than would otherwise have been the case. Made no. difference to No. 10 though. :guiness;
Unfortunately, without knowing the percentage of the 150,000 had pre-existing, potentially terminal, conditions it is impossible to say how many of them would have died of the pre-existing condition irrespective of the positive test.

Lockdowns were implemented on the basis of modelling. The decision of the cabinet in December 2021 not to follow the “science”, by not implementing more onerous restrictions, allowed the predictions of several models to be tested. The data shows that the models massively overestimated the numbers of hospital admissions and deaths. It is more than likely that previous modelling and predictions were equally erroneous.
Different variant. Not directly comparable. But more than likely that the later models were more advanced as more relevant data was available. Nonetheless, Johnson took a big gamble by letting it play out with minimal restrictions, given the very high number of daily infections. Luckily, Omicron has proven to be a lot less severe than previous variants.

The More or Less programme was discussing your first point, but I didn't hear all of it, so I will catch up on iplayer, some time.
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Re: The Rise & Fall of Boris Johnson

Unread post by Geoff.R.G »

savvypaul wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:02 pm
Geoff.R.G wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:43 am
CN211276 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 9:50 am However the figures are interpreted, there can be no doubt that thousands of deaths would have been prevented had the lockdowns been sooner. Allowing Cheltenham to go ahead in March 2000 was madness. Football authorities took matters into their own hands by cancelling fixtures before lock down. Because the lockdowns were implemented too late they went on for longer than would otherwise have been the case. Made no. difference to No. 10 though. :guiness;
Unfortunately, without knowing the percentage of the 150,000 had pre-existing, potentially terminal, conditions it is impossible to say how many of them would have died of the pre-existing condition irrespective of the positive test.

Lockdowns were implemented on the basis of modelling. The decision of the cabinet in December 2021 not to follow the “science”, by not implementing more onerous restrictions, allowed the predictions of several models to be tested. The data shows that the models massively overestimated the numbers of hospital admissions and deaths. It is more than likely that previous modelling and predictions were equally erroneous.
Different variant. Not directly comparable. But more than likely that the later models were more advanced as more relevant data was available. Nonetheless, Johnson took a big gamble by letting it play out with minimal restrictions, given the very high number of daily infections. Luckily, Omicron has proven to be a lot less severe than previous variants.

The More or Less programme was discussing your first point, but I didn't hear all of it, so I will catch up on iplayer, some time.
Omicron is easier to catch but has markedly less severe symptoms. Thus as earlier variants were not as easy to catch it isn't possible to directly compare the predictions. However, as the models were based on minimal data, it is likely that they were pessimistic, for obvious reasons. The predictions for July 2021 and September 2021 seriously exaggerated the numbers too, and that was Delta. If, as so many have suggested, we had "trusted the science" we would have remained in lock down or under more onerous restrictions for considerably longer than was actually the case.

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Re: The Rise & Fall of Boris Johnson

Unread post by CN211276 »

[quote=Geoff.R.G post_id=226807 time=1643196416 user_id= If, as so many have suggested, we had "trusted the science" we would have remained in lock down or under more onerous restrictions for considerably longer than was actually the case.
[/quote

:hbs: and more government lies. If restrictions and lockdowns were more timely they would not have needed to go on for so long.
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Re: The Rise & Fall of Boris Johnson

Unread post by savvypaul »

Geoff.R.G wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:26 pm
savvypaul wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:02 pm
Geoff.R.G wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:43 am

Unfortunately, without knowing the percentage of the 150,000 had pre-existing, potentially terminal, conditions it is impossible to say how many of them would have died of the pre-existing condition irrespective of the positive test.

Lockdowns were implemented on the basis of modelling. The decision of the cabinet in December 2021 not to follow the “science”, by not implementing more onerous restrictions, allowed the predictions of several models to be tested. The data shows that the models massively overestimated the numbers of hospital admissions and deaths. It is more than likely that previous modelling and predictions were equally erroneous.
Different variant. Not directly comparable. But more than likely that the later models were more advanced as more relevant data was available. Nonetheless, Johnson took a big gamble by letting it play out with minimal restrictions, given the very high number of daily infections. Luckily, Omicron has proven to be a lot less severe than previous variants.

The More or Less programme was discussing your first point, but I didn't hear all of it, so I will catch up on iplayer, some time.
Omicron is easier to catch but has markedly less severe symptoms. Thus as earlier variants were not as easy to catch it isn't possible to directly compare the predictions. However, as the models were based on minimal data, it is likely that they were pessimistic, for obvious reasons. The predictions for July 2021 and September 2021 seriously exaggerated the numbers too, and that was Delta. If, as so many have suggested, we had "trusted the science" we would have remained in lock down or under more onerous restrictions for considerably longer than was actually the case.
There were a range of models and, therefore, a range of possible outcomes. Seems to me that you are being rather selective with your hindsight.

The topic in this thread is Johnson. Seems to me that he was slow to lockdown in early 2020, slow to take action in September 2020 (more deaths in the second wave than the first) despite the lessons from earlier and with no vaccine in sight at that stage, and took a massive gamble (because he had run out of political capital with his backbenchers) in Xmas 2021 on a highly infectious variant that they did not know for certain was less severe.

Vaccine roll out is an undoubted success, but Johnson has failed (along with most other world leaders) to work on the international stage to vaccinate in less developed countries. Which is why we remain especially open to more variants, and our existing vaccines are not guaranteed to work on them.
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Re: The Rise & Fall of Boris Johnson

Unread post by Geoff.R.G »

savvypaul wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:37 pm
Geoff.R.G wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:26 pm
savvypaul wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:02 pm

Different variant. Not directly comparable. But more than likely that the later models were more advanced as more relevant data was available. Nonetheless, Johnson took a big gamble by letting it play out with minimal restrictions, given the very high number of daily infections. Luckily, Omicron has proven to be a lot less severe than previous variants.

The More or Less programme was discussing your first point, but I didn't hear all of it, so I will catch up on iplayer, some time.
Omicron is easier to catch but has markedly less severe symptoms. Thus as earlier variants were not as easy to catch it isn't possible to directly compare the predictions. However, as the models were based on minimal data, it is likely that they were pessimistic, for obvious reasons. The predictions for July 2021 and September 2021 seriously exaggerated the numbers too, and that was Delta. If, as so many have suggested, we had "trusted the science" we would have remained in lock down or under more onerous restrictions for considerably longer than was actually the case.
There were a range of models and, therefore, a range of possible outcomes. Seems to me that you are being rather selective with your hindsight.

The topic in this thread is Johnson. Seems to me that he was slow to lockdown in early 2020, slow to take action in September 2020 (more deaths in the second wave than the first) despite the lessons from earlier and with no vaccine in sight at that stage, and took a massive gamble (because he had run out of political capital with his backbenchers) in Xmas 2021 on a highly infectious variant that they did not know for certain was less severe.

Vaccine roll out is an undoubted success, but Johnson has failed (along with most other world leaders) to work on the international stage to vaccinate in less developed countries. Which is why we remain especially open to more variants, and our existing vaccines are not guaranteed to work on them.
Actually the truth was that there were fewer deaths and hospitalisations in July and September 21 than the most optimistic model, likewise in December. South African data suggested early on that Omicron was less severe than previous variants and the UK Chief Medical Officer had predicted that this is what would happen, he told us in 2020 but even so we weren't ready for the number of positive tests, a failing of the government under Boris. Where else he has failed is open to question in some respects but definitely he should have lead on the world stage but then neither did almost anyone else.

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Re: The Rise & Fall of Boris Johnson

Unread post by slinger »

It appears that the pre-release synopsis of the Sue Gray report is out, and although redacted, is readable.

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